A Practical Guide to Pipeline Risk Modeling for PHMSA Compliance

Welcome to our new blog series! 

We understand how challenging it can be to navigate the extensive regulations surrounding pipeline safety and compliance. To assist operators in understanding the expectations of regulatory agencies like the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), we’ve created this series to break down the intricacies of pipeline management into digestible chunks. This series specifically focuses on the cornerstone of pipeline risk assessments: Pipeline Risk Modeling. 

What is Pipeline Risk Modeling? 

Pipeline risk modeling is a systematic approach to identifying, evaluating, and mitigating risks associated with pipeline operations. It is a critical framework for performing risk assessments, which are mandated by federal pipeline integrity management (IM) regulations. (1)

It involves assessing the likelihood and potential consequences of pipeline failures to ensure the safe transport of hazardous materials. Effective risk modeling helps operators prioritize maintenance and inspection activities, allocate resources efficiently, and prevent pipeline failures. Pipeline failures can be disastrous – leading to significant environmental damage, financial losses, and safety hazards to human life. It was, after all, the San Bruno natural gas pipeline rupture in 2010 which killed eight, injured 60, and resulted in economic losses of US$220 million, that kickstarted PHMSA’s “final rule” in 2011. (2) 

You might be wondering why PHMSA keeps popping – and it’s not just because it’s in the title of our series. While PHMSA is specifically a U.S. regulatory body, its standards are considered highly authoritative and influential in the global pipeline industry. Many countries look to PHMSA’s guidelines as a benchmark for best practices in pipeline safety and risk management. As such, we will be using PHMSA literature as our primary reference material throughout this series. 

What to Expect

We’ll begin with the Fundamentals of Risk Modeling, where we’ll explore the types of risk models and their components.  

Next, we’ll dive deeper into the Tools and Methods of pipeline risk modelling, focusing on the specifics of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and data integration.  

As we progress, we’ll keep updated on relevant Regulatory and Industry Updates in the past few years. 

From there, we move to Implementation and Best Practices, where you’ll learn practical steps for integrating risk models into your organization.  

Finally, we’ll explore Case Studies and Future Trends. By examining real-world examples, you’ll gain insights into successful implementations and the lessons learned from them. Additionally, we’ll look ahead to emerging trends in risk modeling, preparing you for future developments in the field.  

As an added bonus, we’ll be highlighting our takeaways from PHMSA’s 2024 Emergency Response Guidebook, an essential resource for first responders dealing with hazardous materials/dangerous goods transportation incidents.  

Our goal is to help pipeline operators, engineers, and safety professionals gain clarity and confidence in their pipeline risk assessments.  

Stay tuned for the first instalment in this series where we’ll be exploring the different types of pipeline risk models and helping you understand their practical importance with some key stats. We’ll compare the versatility of various models and highlight the technical features that PHMSA recommends they include. 

(1) 49 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 192, Subpart O (Gas Transmission Pipelines) and 49 CFR Part 195.452 (Hazardous Liquid Pipelines).

(2) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. (2022, August 4). New rule strengthens safety requirements for more than 300,000 miles of natural gas pipelines. U.S. Department of Transportation. https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/news/phmsa-final-rule-safety-gas-transmission-pipelines-repair-criteria-integrity-management-Improvements-cathodic-protection-management-of-change-and-other-related-amendments